November 12, 2000
Dear Family and Friends,
Many of you already know some of my thoughts about the future. I am sending you this letter to briefly give you the facts behind my belief. I realize there is little chance of you changing your beliefs, afterall, I’m certainly not the smartest guy in the world. But I would say you don’t have to be that smart. You only need to be smart enough to know who is. After twenty years of closely following financial markets and the people who are considered the foremost experts, I’ve learned who knows what they’re talking about. When it comes to forecasting the future, history is the ultimate fact checker.
The following is a forecast by R.N. Elliott, the man who discovered the only method that has proven, over many decades, to be able to predict future market and economic activity. While this method is not a crystal ball, it has proven to be the most accurate method in history. The top four stock market calls of all time have all been made by the foremost practitioners of this method.
The following forecast was made after a decade of depression, with the world at war, and extreme pessimism everywhere:
Original Forecast (1941): A great bull market has started. When the current wave pattern completes, a great bull market and economic expansion will end, and a severe market decline and economic contraction will commence approximately 60-70 years from now. There will be no depression until then…This depression will be the deepest and longest in American history.
Here is the current forecast by my mentor, Robert Prechter, the foremost expert on this method today. He has been credited with having made the greatest forecast (1978) in stock market history: “A 225-year great bull market and economic expansion is ending. We are now entering a period of deep economic decline. The bottom is many years off. All Assets, including stocks, commodities, and real estate, will in the end decline in real value much more than anyone thinks possible today, very likely over 90%.
Right now, the world is experiencing the greatest level of optimism in human history. The Pope has traveled to Mecca, something that was believed to be impossible. The song “The whole world is coming together now” is the rage, the United Nations favorability is at an all-time high, and all the so-called experts are calling for economic prosperity as far as the eye can see.
In this environment of historic optmism anyone forecasting a great financial and economic crisis would be called crazy. But what people don’t understand is that when extreme opinions are shared widely, such as what is present today, history clearly shows that such an environment is the most reliable indicator of a change of direction. In this case, a very big change.
So here is a road map that you can use to keep you on track and ahead of events. If optimism continues unabated into the future, then this forecast will have been proven wrong. But if we see a sustained increase in the level of polarization: politically, religiously, racially, sexually, culturally, economically, and internationally, then you will know this forecast is correct. Hopefully, you will act in time to protect your family.
I realize this is completely contrary to everything you believe and what you are constantly being told and advised. I do think all of you should be at least thinking about this forecast and prepared to take action as events unfold. Have a plan.
Good luck to you all, RP
Looking back from today (12/21/25), much of what was once dismissed as impossible or extreme has now become familiar. Repeated financial crises, widening polarization, declining trust in institutions, and growing restrictions on personal freedom are no longer theoretical risks—they are part of daily life.
This letter was never about predicting dates or proving anyone wrong. It was about recognizing long-term patterns and being mentally and practically prepared for change. Whether events unfold exactly as forecast or not, history reminds us that resilience belongs to those who plan ahead rather than react too late.
My hope remains the same as it was then: that those I care about are informed, adaptable, and prepared—whatever the future brings.
Good luck, RP